Kamala Harris’ Chances of Beating Donald Trump in Arizona: Polls

As the race to November 5 heats up, former President Donald Trump is holding on to a slight lead in Arizona, one of seven critical states that could tip the results of the 2024 election.
Recent polling shows that Trump may be building on his lead above Vice President Kamala Harris in the Grand Canyon State, where the former president lost to President Joe Biden in 2020 by just under 11,000 votes. In a survey released by The New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday, Trump is up in Arizona by 5 percentage points, leading Harris 50 percent to 45 percent. Roughly a month earlier, Harris was ahead in the same poll, leading 49 percent to 45 percent.
All hope is not lost for Harris securing Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes, however, as other polls have found the state’s race to be much closer. In a poll by Emerson College/The Hill conducted between September 15 and 18, Trump was leading by just 1 percentage point (50 percent to 49 percent) based on the response of 868 likely voters.
The latest polling from Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph found that Trump and Harris were tied in Arizona at 47 percent, per the response of 789 likely voters surveyed between September 16 and 19. Harris also came out on top in a poll by Morning Consult between September 9 and 18, which found the vice president up by 1 percentage point (48 percent to 47 percent) based on the response of 862 likely voters.
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast puts Arizona in the “toss-up” category, meaning that both candidates have under a 60 percent chance of winning the state come November. As of Monday, Trump was given a 54 percent chance in Arizona, while Harris was given a 46 percent chance, per the site’s model. On average, Trump is up by 1.2 percentage points in Arizona, per FiveThirtyEight’s tracking.
RealClearPolling’s forecast also says that the race in Arizona is a “toss-up.” On average, per the site’s tracking, Trump is up by 2.2 percentage points in the polls.
Pollster Nate Silver, who created FiveThirtyEight before it was sold to ABC News, gives Trump a much higher chance in Arizona. Per his election model, the former president has a 68 percent chance of winning the state, while Trump has a 32 percent chance.
Newsweek reached out to Trump and Harris’ campaigns via email for additional comment.
Harris still holds the lead across the board as of Monday, with Silver’s model giving the vice president a 53.2 percent chance of victory in November. Trump, on the other hand, has a 46.6 percent chance of winning reelection.
Silver’s prediction gives Harris the edge in four critical swing states, which have 50 electoral votes in total: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump holds the lead in three swing states that hold 43 electoral votes in total: Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.